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Black Friday supply chain: the stock lands in October, the sales peak in December

Black Friday is a retail event, but for the supply chain it ends in October. Here is what eight years of US Census retail data show about when shelves fill up, when they empty, and the last date a container can leave Asia and still make Black Friday 2026.

By Simdots · Published

Key facts

  • Black Friday 2026 is Fri 27 Nov 2026; Cyber Monday is Mon 30 Nov 2026.
  • US retailers added $56bn of inventory between August and October 2025 (+6.7%), then ran it back down to $837bn by December.
  • On the 2018–2025 average, inventories peak in Oct; sales peak in December. The gap between the two is the peak season.
  • Clothing stores do 22.4% of their annual sales in November and December, and December sales run 56% above an average month.
  • E-commerce sold 31% more in December 2025 than in an average 2025 month.
  • A typical Black Friday cart of 12 products is 24% made-in-China by value on 2025 US import data, down from 58% in 2024; Vietnam is now the biggest origin (34%).
  • For goods in a US warehouse two weeks before Black Friday, the last Shanghai–Los Angeles sailing is around 19 Oct. As of Sat 24 Oct 2026, 6 of the 7 routes below have already passed their date.
+$56bn
US retail inventory build, Aug→Oct 2025
22.4%
of clothing stores’ annual sales made in Nov–Dec
-14%
clothing inventory, Oct→Dec 2025
58%→24%
China’s share of a typical Black Friday cart, 2024→2025
+4.9%
total retail inventories, Aug 2026 vs a year earlier

Which retail categories depend most on Black Friday and the holiday season?

US retail sales by month, index (100 = the category’s average month)

US retail sales seasonal index by category and month, 100 = average month
CategoryJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Clothing & accessories storesNAICS 448 · Nov+Dec = 22.4% of year72±281±397±395±3104±295±198±1104±289±296±2113±2156±2
Sporting goods, hobby, music & booksNAICS 451 · Nov+Dec = 21.1% of year84±380±397±492±397±299±298±2110±294±294±3110±2143±4
Electronics & appliance storesNAICS 443 · Nov+Dec = 21.0% of year94±389±397±490±496±295±197±3100±195±395±2116±5136±6
Nonstore retailers (e-commerce)NAICS 454 · Nov+Dec = 20.5% of year94±187±296±394±299±193±298±298±293±2102±1115±4130±7
General merchandise storesNAICS 452 · Nov+Dec = 19.5% of year88±386±297±295±3102±199±199±1103±194±2100±2108±3126±4
Total retail tradeNAICS 44-45 · Nov+Dec = 18.0% of year90±187±2100±199±2105±1100±2102±1104±197±1101±1103±1113±2
Health & personal care storesNAICS 446 · Nov+Dec = 17.7% of year97±291±1100±397±2101±298±298±2102±199±3105±2100±3112±3
Food & beverage storesNAICS 445 · Nov+Dec = 16.8% of year99±199±199±199±199±0100±0100±1100±1101±0101±1101±1101±1
Notes: each cell is that month’s sales divided by the category’s average monthly sales in the same year, ×100, then averaged across 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. 2020 and 2021 are excluded because lockdowns and stimulus payments shifted spending across months. The small ± figure is the standard deviation of the index across those 6 years. Outlined cell = each row’s highest month. Categories are NAICS codes (North American Industry Classification System): they classify stores by their main line of business, not products, so a TV sold by a supercentre counts under general merchandise. “Nov+Dec” is the share of annual sales made in those two months; with no seasonality it would be 16.7%. Rows sorted by that share.
Source: US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Survey (not seasonally adjusted), via FRED.

Two groups emerge. Clothing, sporting goods and electronics stores sell 136–156% of an average month in December, while food stores stay at 101. The December peak is also stable: across the six years it varies by at most ±6 points in those three categories, so it is a structural feature of the calendar rather than the result of one strong season. E-commerce is the exception in timing: its November is 115, against 113 for clothing stores, which is where Black Friday and Cyber Monday show up in monthly data.

When do retailers stock up for Black Friday?

In general merchandise stores (department stores, warehouse clubs, supercentres), inventories sit 11% above their yearly average at their Oct peak, 2 months before sales peak in December at +26%. By December the relationship has flipped: stock is -4% against the average, because the holiday weeks sell down what September and October brought in. The same ordering, stock peak first and sales peak in December, appears in every one of the 6 years, not only in the average.

General merchandise stores: inventories and sales by month

Inventory peaks at +11% in Oct; sales peak at +26% in December, when inventory is at -4%.

-20-100+10+20+30+40% vs the year's average monthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecInventory Jan: -5.5%Inventory Feb: -3.9%Inventory Mar: -2.2%Inventory Apr: -1.6%Inventory May: -2.7%Inventory Jun: -3.1%Inventory Jul: -2.3%Inventory Aug: +0.3%Inventory Sep: +5.3%Inventory Oct: +10.8%Inventory Nov: +9.0%Inventory Dec: -4.3%Sales Jan: -11.9%Sales Feb: -13.7%Sales Mar: -2.5%Sales Apr: -4.5%Sales May: +2.4%Sales Jun: -0.7%Sales Jul: -0.8%Sales Aug: +2.9%Sales Sep: -5.7%Sales Oct: +0.3%Sales Nov: +8.0%Sales Dec: +26.3%
Notes: General merchandise stores, NAICS 452. Each month’s value as a % difference from that year’s average month (0 = an average month). Lines are the mean over 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025; shaded areas span the lowest and highest year. Inventories are end-of-month stock.
Source: US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Survey (not seasonally adjusted), via FRED.

Whether the stock looks large or small depends on what it is compared to. Measured against sales, clothing stores enter the autumn with 2.7 months of stock and close December with 1.37. Most of that drop comes from the denominator: clothing-store sales in December are 1.6× their October level, while inventories fall by 14% between October and December 2025.

Inventory-to-sales ratio by month (months of stock)

Average inventory-to-sales ratio by month, US retail
CategoryJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Clothing2.982.782.352.412.172.372.322.212.672.582.161.37
General merchandise1.471.531.381.421.311.341.351.341.531.521.391.04
Total retail1.481.541.351.381.301.361.331.321.461.431.411.23
Notes: ratio = end-of-month inventories (book value, $) ÷ sales during that month ($), averaged over 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. A value of 2.0 means the stock held at the end of the month would cover two months of sales at that month’s pace. Shading uses the same scale as the first table, relative to each row’s annual average (green = more months of stock than usual, grey = fewer).
Source: US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Survey (not seasonally adjusted), via FRED.

How big is the pre-holiday inventory build?

In 2025 retailers added $56bn of stock between August and October (+6.7%), and ran it back down to $837bn by December. The 2026 line sits above 2025 in 8 of the 8 months published so far; in Aug 2026 the gap is +4.9%. The 2026 autumn build therefore starts from a higher base than the previous year’s.

Total US retail inventories, end of month

Inventories rise from $831bn in August 2025 to $887bn in October 2025 and fall to $837bn in December 2025. Aug 2026: $872bn.

780800820840860880900$bnJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2024 Jan: $794bn2024 Feb: $806bn2024 Mar: $809bn2024 Apr: $817bn2024 May: $817bn2024 Jun: $821bn2024 Jul: $821bn2024 Aug: $832bn2024 Sep: $856bn2024 Oct: $881bn2024 Nov: $879bn2024 Dec: $830bn2025 Jan: $832bn2025 Feb: $838bn2025 Mar: $839bn2025 Apr: $839bn2025 May: $833bn2025 Jun: $834bn2025 Jul: $830bn2025 Aug: $831bn2025 Sep: $858bn2025 Oct: $887bn2025 Nov: $880bn2025 Dec: $837bn2026 Jan: $837bn2026 Feb: $846bn2026 Mar: $859bn2026 Apr: $869bn2026 May: $864bn2026 Jun: $865bn2026 Jul: $869bn2026 Aug: $872bn
Notes: NAICS 44–45, total retail trade, not seasonally adjusted. The vertical axis does not start at zero. Latest month available: Aug 2026 (Census publishes inventories one month after sales).
Source: US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, via FRED (series MRTSIM44000USN).

Last shipping dates from Asia for Black Friday 2026

A container has to clear four stages before Black Friday, in this order: the sea crossing, unloading and customs at the destination port, transport inland to the distribution centre, and a buffer in the distribution centre so goods can be sorted and sent to stores or e-commerce fulfilment. The table counts backwards from Fri 27 Nov 2026. Goods should be in the distribution centre by Fri 13 Nov 2026 (14 days before), so a container has to sail at least sea days + 10 days earlier than that.

On the main transpacific lane, Shanghai to Los Angeles, the last sailing was Mon 19 Oct 2026. At publication 6 of the 7 routes had already passed their date, so anything not yet on the water by then would need air freight or would arrive for December instead of Black Friday.

Latest sailing date to have goods in a distribution centre for Black Friday 2026

Latest container sailing date to have goods in a distribution centre for Black Friday 2026
RouteLast sailingSea daysPort, customs & inland daysIn DC byStatus on 24 OctLast sailing via Cape
Busan → Los Angeles1210sailed–
Shanghai → Los Angeles1510sailed–
Hamburg → New York1010open–
Mumbai → Rotterdam1810sailed
Singapore → Rotterdam2210sailed
Shanghai → Rotterdam2610sailed
Shanghai → New York2610sailed–
Notes: read each row left to right in time: last sailing + sea days + 10 days (5 port and customs, 5 inland) = in the distribution centre (DC) by 13 Nov, 14 days before Black Friday. “Sailed” means the last useful departure date was already behind us on the publication date (Sat 24 Oct 2026). The last column applies only to routes that normally pass through Suez: it adds 12 sea days for the detour around the Cape of Good Hope, used by most carriers since the Red Sea attacks began in late 2023, so the sailing must be 12 days earlier. Routes ending in Rotterdam or Hamburg are for retailers selling into Europe. Port, customs, inland and DC days are planning assumptions, not measurements; production lead time comes on top.
Source: sea days from the Freight Academy sea-freight transit-time reference table (midpoint of the direct range), as used on inventory days vs ocean transit days; Simdots calculation.

Where does your Black Friday cart come from?

Pick what you plan to buy and what you expect to pay. Each item is split across the countries the US actually imported it from in 2025, weighted by your price, so you can see which supply chains your Black Friday depends on and how much that changed in a year. The default prices and quantities are illustrative; edit them to match your own cart.

China’s share fell for 12 of the 12 products between 2024 and 2025. The largest move was in video game consoles, from 86% to 25% of US imports, with Vietnam gaining the most (+51 points). Origin is the country of last substantial transformation, so a move of final assembly out of China counts as a shift even when components are still made there.

US imports of typical Black Friday products, share by country of origin

US imports of 12 typical Black Friday products: value, origin shares in 2024 and 2025, average customs value per unit
ProductUS imports 2025Origins 2024Origins 2025Avg customs value / unit
SmartphoneHS 851713$52.4bn
81%14%
45%11%42%
$372
LaptopHS 847130$49.3bn
66%27%
18%61%
$492
ToysHS 950300$14.7bn
76%
67%13%
–
TelevisionHS 852872$11.0bn
10%10%76%
14%82%
$265
Video game consoleHS 950450$6.7bn
86%
25%56%14%
–
Headphones / earbudsHS 851830$6.5bn
48%43%
20%67%
$19
Cosmetics & skincareHS 330499$5.1bn
18%25%38%
15%28%39%
–
Cotton T-shirtHS 610910$4.9bn
10%59%
10%57%
$2
Sweater (synthetic)HS 611030$4.8bn
21%16%43%
12%18%48%
$6
Sneakers (pair)HS 640411$4.3bn
16%65%16%
11%65%20%
$19/pair
Leather handbagHS 420221$2.3bn
26%35%18%
26%35%18%
$78
Air fryer / countertop ovenHS 851660$2.3bn
38%34%
22%32%10%14%
$64
Notes: each product is one HS code (Harmonized System, the 6-digit product classification used by customs worldwide; e.g. 851713 = smartphones). Bars show each origin country’s share of the value of all US imports of that product; percentages are printed for shares of 10% or more. Shares describe all imports of the product, not a specific brand, and goods made in the US are not counted. Average customs value per unit = total import value ÷ units imported, shown only where customs report units as pieces or pairs; it excludes duties, freight inside the US and retail margin.
Source: UN Comtrade, US-reported imports, customs value, 2024 and 2025.

Black Friday supply chain: frequently asked questions

When is Black Friday 2026?

Black Friday 2026 is Friday 27 November 2026, the day after US Thanksgiving (Thursday 26 November). Cyber Monday follows on 30 November 2026.

When do retailers stock up for Black Friday?

In September and October. US Census data show total retail inventories rising from $831bn in August 2025 to $887bn in October 2025, a build of about $56bn (6.7%) in two months, before falling back to $837bn by December as holiday sales drew stock down.

When is the last shipping date from China for Black Friday?

For goods that must be in a US distribution centre two weeks before Black Friday 2026, the last container sailing from Shanghai to Los Angeles is around Mon 19 Oct 2026, allowing 15 days at sea plus about 10 days for port, customs and inland transport. Shanghai to New York needs to sail by about Thu 8 Oct 2026.

Which retail categories depend most on the Black Friday and holiday season?

Clothing stores, with November and December averaging 22.4% of annual sales and December running at 156% of an average month. Electronics stores (21.0%), sporting goods, hobby and book stores (21.1%) and e-commerce (20.5%) follow; an even year would put any two months at 16.7%.

How much stock do clothing retailers hold before the holidays?

US clothing stores hold on average 2.98 months of sales in inventory at their pre-season peak (Jan, excluding January), versus 1.37 months in December once the holiday selling has cleared the shelves.

How much of a Black Friday shopping cart comes from China?

For a typical cart of 12 common Black Friday products (electronics, toys, apparel, beauty), about 24% of the value matches US imports from China in 2025, down from 58% in 2024, based on UN Comtrade data weighted by shelf price. Vietnam is the largest single origin at 34%, and Asian countries together supply about 79%.

Where do smartphones, laptops and TVs sold in the US come from?

In 2025: smartphones mostly from China (45%) and India (42%); laptops from Vietnam (61%); televisions from Mexico (82%). China's share of US laptop imports fell from 66% in 2024 to 18% in 2025.

How much does an imported smartphone cost at the US border?

The average customs value of a smartphone imported into the US in 2025 was about $372, according to UN Comtrade (total import value divided by units). That is before duties, freight inside the US, distribution and retail margin.

Are US retailers holding more inventory in 2026?

Yes. Total US retail inventories were $872bn in Aug 2026, 4.9% above Aug 2025, which means the pre-holiday stock build started from a higher base than last year.

Sources and method

  • Sales: US Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey, not seasonally adjusted, retrieved via FRED (series RSCCASN, RSSGHBMSN, RSEASN, RSNSRN, RSGMSN, RSXFSN, RSHPCSN, RSDBS).
  • Imports by origin: UN Comtrade public API, US-reported imports for consumption, customs value, HS6, 2024–2025. Cart share = sum of (quantity × your price × origin share of US imports). Customs value per unit = import value / reported units, only where units are pieces or pairs.
  • Inventories and ratios: same survey, series MRTSIM44000USN, MRTSIM452USN, MRTSIM448USN, MRTSIR448USN, MRTSIR452USN, MRTSIR44000USN.
  • Seasonal index: each month divided by that year’s monthly average, then averaged across 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. 2020–2021 excluded.
  • Census reports calendar months. Black Friday and Cyber Monday fall in late November, but much of the “holiday” demand lands in December; the data cannot isolate the single weekend.
  • Data vintage: latest month available is Sep 2026 for sales and Aug 2026 for inventories; Census releases inventory figures about a month after sales.
  • Scope: US retailers only; retail data for other countries are not included.
  • Licence: page and CSV CC BY 4.0. Census data are public domain.